With just 11 days before the election, I thought I would unveil my election predictions for Ohio.  The factors I took into account are fundraising, ground game, and third party activities.  I reserve the right to update these in the final days as events require.

U.S. Senate - Rob Portman - this race isn't even close and needs no witty commentary from me.  The only question here is will Portman play kingmaker and help out the rest of the ticket with his campaign wealth.

Governor - Ted Strickland - Ohio Democrats have an advanced ground game that cost millions of dollars, employs 150 field workers, and was years in the making.  Democrats are as of today dominating early voting by at least 10 points statewide while Republicans can't find enough money to fund their program.  Strickland has outraised Kasich by $2-3 million or more and has spent his money more effectively on direct advertising versus consultants.  As outside spending goes, Strickland spending will far outpace Kasich spending especially in the closing days of the campaign. 

I believe the Republican Governors Association made a huge error on how they chose to raise their money.  For some reason they have used a Ohio state and local PAC and subjected themselves to raising funds from individuals in limited amounts.  With today's campaign finance landscape, the RGA could have raised unlimited dollars from individuals and corporations and used it the way Strickland groups, like Our Future Ohio, are now doing.

Secretary of State - Jon Husted - Husted friend Kevin DeWine chairs the Ohio Republican Party now and this race is their primary focus.  Husted also has significantly outraised and outspent his Democrat opponent and I see nothing that will change that pattern.  There has been no outside funds spent either on behalf of Husted or his opponent.  Four days ago the Democratic Association of Secretary of States filed paperwork to operate in Ohio.  However, they have not yet reported raising or spending any money.  Edge to Husted unless this outside group gets real busy, real fast.

Auditor of State - David Pepper - Pepper is way ahead in fundraising, was endorsed by all statewide papers except for the Columbus Dispatch, and has just loaned his campaign $250k.  And there is a lot more family money where that came from.  There are no outside groups active in this race and unless the Ohio Republican Party or someone else comes up with a lot of money quick, Pepper will win this and give Ohio Democrats control of the apportionment board coming into redistricting.

Attorney General - Richard Cordray - Even though Cordray has outraised his opponent and run a better campaign, I would have given the edge to DeWine until just a couple of days ago.  That was when an outside group linked to the Democratic Governors Association started dumping what was as of yesterday $3.2 million in negative advertising.  Mike DeWine has deep, deep personal pockets.  The question is will he spend even more of that wealth to return to elected office, or stop at the $1.9 million he's already spent.  Unless he writes some much larger checks, edge to Cordray.

Treasurer of State - Josh Mandel - This is another race that won't even be close.  The only question is, like Portman, will Mandel play kingmaker and try to rescue the rest of the ticket.

Ohio House - Democrats Will Retain Tight Majority - House Democrats have run a very ugly, but effective campaign in the face of an unbelievable brutal political environment.  They've raised and spent millions more than Republicans both directly and through a multitude of outside groups.  Republicans have done pretty well and are competitive in the key races, but haven't been helped at all by outside groups like the Democrats.  In one key district, first time candidate Matt Carle, my law school classmate, displayed at least 20 negative mail pieces at a news conference from both Democrats and their outside allies.  Between now and the election day there will be even more along with negative TV ads from outside groups funded by large donations, labor unions, and corporations.

My Final Thoughts - Republicans Only Have Themselves to Blame if They Lose - If Republican lose this, they only have themselves to blame.  Hundreds of millions of dollars have been raised and spent in this election, including amounts from several prominent Ohio corporations and individuals.  Legally, there has never been a better period to raise and spend money on elections.  But little or none of that amount has been spent here in Ohio on state races.  The funds that have been raised have been spent on campaigns like Rob Portman's, who clearly didn't need it. 

The problem with many Ohio donors is that they are "star fuckers".  That is, if Newt Gingrich or Karl Rove comes to their office the donor falls all over themselves and is giddy with excitement to get an autographed picture.  I know, I've sat in their offices patiently while they've showed me their display of pictures on the walls. 

Do we really want to make Newt or Karl a little richer and add another picture to our walls or do we want our candidates to win elections?  Say what you want about him, but Speaker Larry Householder got this.  Unfortunately today no Republican in a leadership position in Ohio does, and if they lose as a result, they'll only have themselves to blame.  If they don't, then they will be luckier than they deserve.