V for Very Broke

Something has been nagging me about Tom Vilsack’s dropping out of the race, and though I get this is not the sexiest of topics, please indulge me. This has broader implications for how to run for President in a new media world.

The only reason Vilsack gave for dropping out of the race was money. He had recruited a series of top-notch operatives (Democrat celebrity-consultants tend to gravitate towards the long-sots more than do the Republicans). He had a staff of 50 in his Des Moines headquarters and was promoting the fact that he had racked up 3,000 “ones” in Iowa — which is short for a diehard vote at the Caucus.

Vilsack was running a top-heavy, traditional campaign when only untraditional campaigns get to go from single digits to 20-30 percent. His model was just wrong. His being from Iowa was also a no-win situation. Anything other than first in Iowa and he was out. If he gained any traction at all, Clinton and Obama would have withdrawn from the state, citing home field advantage and making the Caucuses meaningless. That’s what Bill Clinton did in ‘92 against Tom Harkin.

At this point in the game, Duncan Hunter having John Hawkins and Michael Illions on his side is more important than his having a political director. Why? Because at this point, a great ground game will get him from 1 to 2 percent — draining resources he doesn’t have. A great media operation on the other hand can keep an unknown candidate constantly on Fox News, on blogs, and tossing out buzz-worthy red meat to audiences of 50 and 100 at a time. Great buzz is how one breaks into double digits. And that’s when the efficiency-based gains from a great ground game can do you good.

If you’re at 1% in the polls, you have to prepared to do all of this for $5 million or less in 2007. If you can’t, you have no business running for President. Because the political marketplace just isn’t big enough to support your lofty $15-20 million fundraising goal. If and when lightning strikes, the money will be pouring in hand over fist online and in direct mail.