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Poll shows Space leading Padgett in Ney’s district
Bloomberg News
Wednesday, October 4, 2006 1:16 PM

Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) — Democrats hold leads in 11 of 15 races for key Republican-held House seats less than five weeks before congressional elections, a Reuters/Zogby poll shows.

Among those, Democratic candidates have the advantage in four of six seats that Republican representatives are vacating because of retirement, the incumbent is seeking higher office or because of scandal, according to the poll.

“If these numbers hold there could be very good news for Democrats this year,” Zogby International President John Zogby said in a statement. “No predictions yet because there are still many undecided voters.”

Democrats would have to win in 15 Republican-held districts, while holding all their current seats, in the Nov. 7 vote to gain control of the 435-member House of Representatives.
The surveys of at least 500 potential voters in each congressional district were conducted Sept. 25-Oct. 2. It was a period when Republicans were put on the defensive over the Iraq war following release of an intelligence summary that concluded the conflict has fueled Muslim extremism, publication of a book by Washington Post journalist Bob Woodward that portrays President George W. Bush as ignoring warnings from military officials about the conflict, and a sex scandal involving former Representative Mark Foley of Florida.
“These polls were taken during what Queen Elizabeth would describe as `weekendus horriblis' for the Republicans,” Zogby said.
Contested Seats
One of the races Democrats are targeting is the contest for the seat in Chicago's suburbs being left open by the retirement of 16-term Republican Henry Hyde. The Zogby poll found Democrat Tammy Duckworth holds a 43 percent to 38 percent lead over Republican Peter Roskam.
In eastern Ohio, where Representative Bob Ney has pleaded guilty to accepting money and gifts in an influence-peddling scandal and abandoned his re-election bid, Democrat Zack Space leads Republican Joy Padgett 45 percent to 36 percent.
Incumbent Representative Christopher Shays of Connecticut, seeking his 11th term, trails his Democratic challenger Diane Farrell 46 percent to 41 percent, according to the poll.
Democratic candidates also have an edge in Republican districts in Colorado, Indiana, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Virginia and North Carolina, the poll found. Republicans are leading in other closely contested districts in Iowa, Connecticut, Minnesota and Kentucky.
The margin of error for the polls in each district is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.